Прогноз Форекс и криптовалюты на 27 сентября – 01 октября 2021 года

EUR / USD: Close Start of QE END

The Fed Did Not Make Any Changes to Its Monetary Policy At Its Meeting On September 21-22. However, The Regulator Made It Clear in Its COMMENTARY THAT IT WAS POSSIBLY READY TO START A GENTLE TAPERING OF THE MONETARY STIMULUS (QE) PROGRAM AS EARLY AS NOVEMBER. More Than Half of the Fomc (Federal Open Market Committee) Members Believe That Interest Rate Hikes Will Begin a Few Monhs After The End Of Qe, That Is, Even Before the End of 2022. In Total, In The Period 2022-2024 The Fed Plans to Raise Rates AT Least 6 Times. (For comparison, The Ecb Will Only Start Doing This in Three Years). Such Prospects Were in Favor of the Dollar, The DXy Index Rose to 93.498, and the EUR / USD PAIR RENEWED ITS MONTHLY MINIMUM, FALLING TO 1.1683. There Was a Slim Chance That The Start Of Qe Tapering Would Be Announced Now. But. этого не произошло, и ФРС продолжит печатать новые доллары в объеме не менее $120 млрд в месяц. Сумма денег на балансах домохозяйств США выросла до $16,5 трлн в Q2 году и продолжит расти в ближайшее время (было $12,7 трлн на конец 2019 года). Но должно наступить время, когда население начнет тратить эти деньги на поддержку американской экономики после того, как QE спадет. Такая статистика дала инвесторам уверенность в светлом будущем и оживила их аппетиты к риску, подтолкнув S To Bloomberg, Evergrande Includes 200 Offshore and 2,000 Chinese Companies Operating In Many Countries, So The Bankruptcy Of Such A Giant Would Deal A Powerful Blow to the Global Economy. The Recovery of Investors’ Interests in Risky Assets And The Outflow of Money To the EUR / USD Pair to the north on Thursday. The Weakenging Of The Dollar Accelerated After The Publication of Weak Data from the US Labor Market. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ROSE TO 351,000 IN THE WEEK, AGAINST THE FORECAST OF 320,000. The Number of Repeated Applications for State Benefits Increased to 2.8 Million. This Is Certainly Not a Disaster, But A Wake-Up Call for the Fed. And The NFP and Other Indicators, Which Will Be Published on October 8, Turn Out to Be Disappointing As Well, The Regulator May Consider Delaying QE Tapering For a More Distant Period. Both Of These Factors Helped EUR / USD Bulls Raise The Pair to 1.1750 on September 23. As for the end of the working week At Around 1.1715 After the Speech of FRS Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday Evening. The Fact That The US Central Bank Can Start Winding Down QE In 1-2 Monhs and Complete The Process by MID-2022, After Which It Will Proceed With An Interest Rate Hike, Allows Forecast a Stronger Dollar in the Medium Term. Most Experts (65%) EXPECT A RISE IN THE US CURRENCY AND A FURTHER DECLINE IN THE EUR / USD PAIR IN THE COMING WEEK. They Are Supported by 85% of Oscillators and 100% of Trend Indicators ON D1. The Remaining 35% of Analysts Vote in Favor of The Pair’s Growth, and 15% of Oscillators Also Indicate That It Is Oversold. Support Levels Are 1.1705, 1.1685, 1.1600 and 1525. Resistance Levels Are 1.1750, 1.1800, 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100. Из предстоящих событий следует отметить федеральные выборы в Германии, которые пройдут в воскресенье 26 сентября и после которых канцлер Ангела Меркель покинет свой пост. Заказы на капитал и товары длительного пользования США будут выпущены в понедельник 27 сентября. Появится статистика по потребительским рынкам Германии и Еврозоны в последний день месяца, а также данные по ВВП США. И, наконец, ISM Manufacturing PMI будет выпущен в пятницу 01 октября.

GBP/USD: Bank of England Hawks Win

Прошедшую неделю можно смело назвать неделей центробанков. Не только Федеральная резервная система США, но и банки Англии, Японии и Швейцарии своими встречами процветали. И хотя последние два пока не готовы свернуть курс, британский регулятор внезапно разразился ястребиной риторикой. Банк Англии был крайне пассивным в течение последних нескольких лет, после In The Wake of the Ecb and the fed. And IT Lasted Until The Middle of Last Week. But, Apparently, Leaving The Eu Made Such Behavior Impossible. At Its Meeting on Thursday, September 23, The Bank Made Decisions That Made The Market Literally Flinch, and the GBP / USD PAIR SOAR BY 140 POINTS, FROM 1.3608 TO 1.3748. The Regulator Not Only Announced Its Plans To Tighten Monetary Policy, But Also Outlined The Timing Of The Refinancing Rate Increase. The first Increase to 0.25% Is Due in May 2022 and It Will Rise to 0.50% in December. IN CONTRAST TO THE FED’S VAGUE TIMETABLE, THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S PLAN OUTLINED FAIRLY CLEAR MILESTINES, WHICH, AS ALREADY STATED, THE MARKET RECEIVED WITH ENTHUSIASM. But The GBP / USD Pair Did Not Go Above 1.3748, Because Despite The Lack of Concrete Figures at the Moment, The Fed’s Massive Plan to End QE Will Be Implemented, and in a short Enough Time Frame. This cooled. The Fervor of The Week-Long Bout of Bulls and Bears On the GBP / USD Pair Ended With A Victory for the Latter: Starting The Five-Day Run At 1.3730, IT Ended IT AT 1.3670. Technical Analysis Is Also on the Bear Side: Both Oscillators and Trend Indicators Are Red on D1. IS NOT ONLY THE TREND OF THE LAST TWO WEEKS THAT AFFECTS, BUT ALSO THE DYNAMICS OF THE THREE MONTHS OF THE PAST SUMMER. But As For Week Ahead, The Vote IS 50 to 50. Resistances Are at Levels 1.3690, 1.3765, 1.3810, 1.3910, THEN 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The Bulls Aim to Refresh The June 01 High AT 1.4250. Supports Are in Zones 1.3640, 1.3600, 1.3570 and 1.3520. IN TERMS OF MACRO STATISTICS, THE UK GDP FOR Q2 2021 WILL BE Released on Thursday 30 September. And While The Previous Value Was Positive (+ 4.8%), IT IS Now Forecast to Go Negative, MINUS 1.5%.

USD / JPY: Japanese Doves Lose

The USD / JPY PAIR HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE 110.00 HORIZON SINCE LAST MARCH, MAKING RARE ATTEMPTS TO GET OUT OF THE 108.30-111.00 TRADING CHANNEL. This Time Too, Having Started The Five-Day Period At 109.95, It Reached A Height of 110.78 by The Trading Session AT 110.75. UNLIKE OTHER CENTRAL BANKS IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES, THE BANK OF JAPAN REMAINS Committed to Ultra-Soft Monetary Policy and Negative Interest Rates. That is Why The Yen Is Still of Interest Not As A Tool for Making Money, But As a Safe Haven Currency. The Start of the Week Was Good for It: The Risk Average TRIGGERED by The Possible Bankruptcy of Evergrande Pushed The Pair USD / JPY DOWN TO THE HORIZON OF 109.10. However, Things Went Wrong Later. Investors Wanted Profit Again, Turning to Risky Assets. After the Fed. На заседании 10-летняя доходность казначейских бумаг США взлетела выше 1,44%. Фактически, спред доходности по 10-летним облигациям Японии и аналогичным облигациям США вышел за рамки недавней консолидации в пользу американских облигаций. И такой баланс сил сыграл на руку быкам USD/JPY , ослабив позиции иены. Если Банк Японии продолжит поддерживать политику голубей и ФРС США будет активно сворачивать свою программу фискального стимулирования, иена не будет чувствовать себя хорошо. А пара USD/JPY по-прежнему будет занимать 112,00 высоту штурмом. Японскую валюту может спасти либо очередное падение спроса на рисковые активы, либо просто нежелание рынка сдвинуть пару выше установленного среднесрочного коридора. На данный момент 60% экспертов считают, что пара USD/JPY может приблизиться к отметке 112,00. Но только половина аналитиков голосует за то, чтобы он поднялся выше этого уровня. Второй тайм считает, что пара Will Return to the Above-Mentioned Corridor Again. As for the Indicators on d1, 65% of the Oscillators Look North, The Rest Are Either Colored Neutral Gray Or Signal The Pair Is Overbought. But The Trend Indicators Unanimously Vote for the CONTINUATION OF THE HIKE TO THE NORTH. Support Levels Are Unchanged: 110.15, 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The Dream of the Bears (IT Seems to Be Already Impossible) Is to Retest The April Low of 107.45. The Nearest Resistance Levels Are 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The Ultimate Goal of the Bulls is Still The Same: to Reach the Cherished Height of 112.00. And Maybe Even Overcome IT. As for the Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of The Count of Japan on Tuesday September 28 And The Publication Of The Tankan Index of Laq Q3 ON FRIDAY OCTOBER 01. Но смогут ли они серьезно повлиять на котировки USD/JPY ? На наш взгляд, вряд ли.

КРИПТОВАЛЮТЫ: Киты готовятся к Bear Attack

Графики BTC/USD и ETH/USD на этой неделе очень похожи на графики S 22, Followed by A Correction, and Moderate Risk Appetite Returned to Investors After The Fed Meeting, And The Charts Crept Further North. HOWEVER, IT WAS TOO EARLY TO THINK THAT THE SELL-OFF WAS OVER. After Rising to $ 45,150, Bitcoin Flew Down Again On Friday, September 24, Then Fought Back and IS Trading AT $ 43,000 at the time of writing. The Reason for Another Fall Was China Again, with the People’s Bank of China Declaring All Cryptocurrency Related Activities Illegal, Promising to Take Tough Action Against Violators. The Ban Includes The Services of Foreign Crypto Exchanges Provided in The Country, Among Other Things. INDITION TO PRESSURE FROM REGULATORS, WHALE BEHAVIOR IS ANOTHER WARNING SIGN. On the One Hand, The Number of Coins The Own Is Growing. If in February 1036 BTC Per Whale, This Figure Increased to 3722 BTC in September. But The Number of Whales Themselves Has Decreased BY 15% and NOW STANDS AT 2,125. This Is Thelowest for The Last 15 Monhs. In addition, Significant Amounts of their Coins Have Flowed from Their Wallets to Exchange Accounts. This Suggests That The Whales Are Preparing For a Possible Continuation of the Bear Market. Of Course, Whales Are Not A Single Entity. And Despite The General Desire to Make A Profit, They Can Be Divided Into Short-Term and Long-Term Investors. The Former Are Prone to Speculation and Quick Fixation of Small Profits. The Second, Such As MicroStrategy, Prefer to Restock on price Downturns. And IS Thanks To Them That The Market Is Kept From A Complete Collapse. AS FOR INVESTOR SENTIMENT, THE DATA PROVIDED by Glassnode in The Latest Report Is Interesting. SINCE LATE JULY, WHILE THE Price Of Bitcoin Has Been Climbing from $ 31,000 to $ 52,000, Long-Term Holders Have Sold Coins They Purchased Between The $ 18,000 and $ 31,000 Levels. According. для аналитиков это говорит о том, что некоторые из пассивных инвесторов перешли в категорию активных трейдеров, продающих монеты, которые были приобретены по ценам, близким к текущим. Общая капитализация крипторынка вновь опустилась ниже психологически важного порога в $2,0 трлн и находится на уровне $1,84 трлн. Криптоопасение Three Days Last Week, From September 20 to September 22. At the Same Time, Jpmorgan Bank Strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou Believees That It Should Be Even Lower. In His Opinion, The Fair Price For This Altcoin IS $ 1,500, Based on the Metrics of Network Activity. The Opposite View IS Taken by Cryptocurrency Trader and Analyst Lark Davis, WHO SAID THAT ETH WILL REACH $ 10,000 IN THE COMING WEEKS. HE NOTED THAT LARGE INVESTORS, BANKS AND CORPORATIONS CONTINUE TO INVEST IN THE ETHEREUM ECOSYSTEM. Davis Cited ITS Limited Supply In The Market As Another Factor in Favor of Altcoin Growth. 87% of Ethereum Coins Have Not Moved for More Thanpe Months, Indicating Investor Reluctance to Sell Their Savings. In addition, A Significant Shortage Is Created by Burning Of Underlying Transaction Fees As Well AS by An Increase in Ethereum 2.0 Staking Deposits. AND IN Conclusion, One Discovery Than Could Be Called A Sensation. It Turns Out That Exactly 100 Years Ago, The Famous Auto Industrialist Henry Ford Was Already Putting Forward The Idea of ​​Replacing Gold With a So-Called “Energy Currency.” The Issue Was Raised by Him In The New York Tribune as Early as 1921. It is striking that Ford’s Proposed Project to Launch A New Currency Is Strikingly Similar to the Description of BTC, Which Was Present in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto. The Front Page of The Newspaper Featured An Article Detailing The “Energy Currency” That Ford Believed Could Replace Gold and Become The Backbone of a New Era’s Monetary System. This Currency Would be Fully Functioning on the Basis of “Units of Force” and It Was Proposed To Build a Huge Hydroelectric Power Station to Issue It. Thus, It Could Become The Most Stable and Secured MoneTary Unit and Would Prevent The Growth of The Rich WHO PROFIT From Speculating in Gold.

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