Forecast for the week 9 – January 13:
in a new five -day bidding will be determined by two factors. Firstly, on Thursday we will receive data on inflation in the USA for December, where we can expect a decrease in the indicator, which is favorable for the growth of capitalization of the stock market. Investors are waiting for two more percentage rates from the Fed by 0.25% at meetings on February 1 and March 15, after which Fed can take a break. Secondly, on Friday in the States, the traditional season starts Corporate reporting, where the largest banks are the first to publish their financial results. Since the Fed has actively increased interest rates in recent months, this event will lead to an increase in the net interest income of banks. Bankers always win at the beginning of the tightening cycle of credit and money policy, since borrowers have to pay a higher interest on loans. A year later, the bankers themselves suffer from too high interest rates, since customers take fewer loans. In the first half This year, American banks will demonstrate the growth of financial results, and a decrease in interest income can be expected at the end of the year. If we talk about individual names, I prefer the promotions Goldman Sachs (#goldmansac) and Jpmorgan Chase (#jpmorgan), since they have high profitability of capital.
Trading recommendation: Buy 3880/3825 and Take Profit 4000.
for the last two months of gold demonstrates a strong upward trend and this week I expect a continuation of positive trends. The Central Bank from Asia and the Middle East again actively buy precious metall into their reserves, which is favorable for the growth of gold quotations. If you look at the surveys of financial directors of the world’s largest gold miners, then almost all of them expect the Central Bank in 2023 will be clean buyers of precious metall (purchases will exceed sales). Since in the public debt market the increase in the profitability of American 10-year government bonds has ceased, this factor will provide additional gold support. The yield of long -term Bonds historically correlates with the inflationary expectations of investors and the market is now waiting for a decrease in inflation in the United States, which will allow the Fed not to increase interest rates in the second half of the year. Against this background, the dollar will cease its growth, which is positive for gold, since they have actively historically have strong reverse correlation.
Trading recommendation: Buy 1850/1818 and Take Profit 1895.
It is advisable to use to open positions Buy for two reasons. Firstly, in the American banking system, the surplus of dollar liquidity is growing, which is favorable for highly profitable assets, which include cryptocurrencies. The US Ministry of Finance again continued to spend money from his account in Fedorreve, which increases liquidity in the system. Secondly, in the cryptocurrency market at the end of 2022 there were concerns of bankruptcy of a number of crypto-rhizas, which could provoke a bitcoin collapse, but at the moment the situation was stable and fears of a number of traders were not justified. At the same time, now there are no reasons for the strong growth of cryptocurrency quotations, we can rather talk about a slight strengthening of bitcoin.
Trade recommendation: Buy 16781/16204 and Take Profit 17537.