Oil growth negative for the dollar

C events to pay attention to today:

15.30 msk. US: the number of initial requests for unemployment benefits.


The oil market will be under pressure on the dollar as black gold is quoted in the US currency and has an inverse correlation against the dollar. Oil is now consolidating in the area of ​ ​ psychological level of $80 per barrel and has a good chance of increasing quotes in the region of a 7-year high located at $86.6. Someone may think that such a price tag is too high, but this figure cannot be considered high, given inflation. Over the past decade, inflation on the dollar amounted to 20.5% and now oil costs $63.6 per barrel in 2011 prices. At the same time, in the fall of 2011, oil was quoted at $102. Most of the assets of the commodity market are now trading more expensive than the indicators of a decade ago, and against this background, oil has not yet fully compensated for the lost positions. For example, copper (key industrial metal) now trades 35% more expensive than a price tag a decade ago, which overlaps inflation on the dollar. Oil, taking into account inflation, should now cost $122.9 per barrel. Thus, the increase in quotes to a 7-year high ($86.6) is not something supernatural – such a price will still be below the level of ten years ago.

Trade recommendation: buy 1.3560/1.3535 and take profit 1.3641.