January 15, 2021 4:11 PM Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Analysis January 15th. Jerome Powell\’s speech and rising unemployment have not stopped the rise of the US currency
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15.01.202116:11 Analyst Reviews Forex: EUR/USD Analysis January 15. Jerome Powell’s speech and rising unemployment did not stop the rise of the US currency
Meaning to 14:00 2021-01-017 UTC-00
The EUR/USD wave has regained its completely completed five-wave look. Thus, at the moment we can again expect to start building a new part of the downward trend. If the current assumption is correct, the fall in quotations will continue with targets around 19 and 18 numbers. Do not forget, however, that demand for the US dollar has been very low in recent months, so the upward trend may also resume and become more complicated. The markings
Smaller Wave again indicate the end of part of the upward trend. The estimated 5-in-5 wave has a completely complete look, and a successful attempt to break the minimum expected wave 4 indicates the willingness of the instrument to build at least three waves down the trend. So far, everything looks like the beginning of a new trend section. Repair minimum. Either way, I can’t wait to build three waves down.
Yesterday, news came not only of a political nature, but finally of an economic nature from America. First, the report on applications for unemployment benefits found that the number of primary ones next week was almost 1 million, although markets expected no more than 785,000. The number of secondary applications rose to 5,271,000, although markets expected it to fall to 4,850,000. It can therefore be concluded that the unemployment rate has increased. A little later, Jerome Powell performed. The Fed president did not inform the markets, so the dynamics of the instrument remained unchanged over the past yesterday. The US currency continues to strengthen at a very high rate. Jerome Powell told markets that there would be no premature reduction in the quantitative easing programme. The program will work as long as it takes to achieve its goals. The Fed chief also said monetary policy would remain “soft” for a long period of time until the labour market is fully restored and inflation reaches its peak target level. All this the markets knew without Powell’s speech. Despite the fact that the US economy is recovering and not slowing down, such as european or British, it is still very far from fully recovering. Therefore, no one expected that suddenly in early 2021 The Fed will start looking for a tightening.
Today in the US has already published a retail trade report which showed a 0.7% m/m fall in volumes. Perhaps a little later, demand for the US currency will support the industrial production report, but most likely not. Markets continue to pay very little attention to the background of the news. Therefore, wave marking now has a higher priority.
General conclusions and recommendations:
Euro-Dollar Couple probably completed the construction of part of the upward trend. So at the moment I recommend selling the tool with goals of about 20 and 19 figures for each new “down” MACD signal. So far, everything does not look like a simple corrective wave. Everything looks like the end of an upward trend. Therefore, you can expect a few waves to be built down. This market analysis is informative and is not a transaction guide.
Respectful,Analyst: Alexander DniproskygK InstaForex © 2007-2021