30.10.2020 16:14 EUR/USD ANALYSIS October 30. Reports on GDP and inflation in the euro area may cause a new fall in the European currency
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30.10.2016:14 EUR/USD Analysis October 30. Reports on GDP and inflation in the euro area may cause a new fall in the European currency
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The eur/USD marking wave in the global plan has changed after falling below the minimum wave b. So the whole part of the trend, which starts on September 23rd, now looks like a three-wave and finished. If true, the drop in tool quotes will continue with targets around 15 digits and below. Perhaps another three-wave structure will be built. Markings
101,000 smaller waves also indicate some changes. The option with a further increase in quotations has now been canceled, and now I expect to build at least three waves down. Therefore, a few days before the U.S. election, the dollar, according to wave markings, got a good reason to pick up in tandem with the euro. However, it is also worth noting the superiority of the message background over wave analysis. This means that this is the background of the message, which can easily cause a new increase in tool quotes, and the wave markings will have to be adjusted.
Yesterday in the European Union ended at the next ECB meeting. These meetings are usually important for the market, but the European regulator did not intend to change rates or extend the quantitative stimulus programme. The pandemic (second wave) in the European Union began relatively recently, but quickly. As a result, the EU economy has not yet started to need help due to a new wave of epidemics. But Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB, has made the outlook for the European economy very clear for the coming months. Lagarde said the economic recovery was not super rapid even in the summer, when the coronavirus situation was relatively calm and stable, and now that the EU is experiencing morbidity and many countries are re-locking in, the EU economy may start to slow down again. It follows that the Pandemic Economic Response Programme (PEPP) may be revised in the near future, as can the normal pandemic response programme quantitative easing. What else remains to be done? The economy in quarantine will not recover, it will shrink. To prevent this, or at least to mitigate the negative process, the ECB will have to pour new money into the economy. And the longer a complex epidemiological situation persists, the more cash injections will be needed. Today, the European Union published a report on GDP for the third quarter, which turned out to be slightly better than the markets expected. Yesterday, for example, US GDP in the third quarter showed very strong growth, at 33.1% q/q. European GDP has not failed, but it has not failed excessively. The fall in the euro did not continue during the day. Also in the European Union there was an inflation report, which remained at -0.3% yoy.
General conclusions and recommendations:
Euro-Dollar Couple probably completed the construction of a three-wave upward trend. Therefore, at the moment I recommend selling the instrument with targets around the 1.1519 mark, which is equivalent to 38.2% for Fibonacci, for each signal MACD “down”, pending the construction of a downward wave. This market analysis is informative and is not a transaction guide.
Estimate,Analyst: Alexander DniproskygK InstaForex © 2007-2020